Increasing competition to RIM's wireless email Blackberry handheld from Nokia, Motorola, Sony Ericsson, Palm and others will invariably lead to declining profit margins in the coming year. This alone might show up in the stock price, though without the other blues, Blackberry would look to be on a roll. In fact, RIM's share price has dumped 25% this year, compared to a 5% drop in the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index.

Over two years ago, an Eastern District of Virginia district judge ordered RIM to pay NTP 8.5% royalties for infringing NTP patents. NTP is a patent-holding company set up by the lead inventor of the technology, the late Thomas Campana of Illinois.

RIM has appealed the ruling, so far to no avail. As with many infringing defendants, RIM fights on in court, and has already taken the last-ditch effort of re-examination to try to invalidate NTP patents. Fat chance. While a first office action rejection has been issued, it seems extremely unlike that all asserted claims would be invalided, and more likely that the rejections overcome.

RIM and NTP reached a $450 million settlement agreement this past March, but the deal fell apart in June. Now, for being penny-wise and pound foolish, that deal looks like a tonic that RIM will be lucky to relocate. With the recent legal setbacks for RIM, NTP's bargaining position is strengthened.

The fallout publicity from the patent case has to be having an effect. This story is all over, ironically owing to the renown of the Blackberry. Headlines like that from the Boston Globe: "BlackBerry e-mail may be halted", have got to hurt sales.

If RIM doesn't find a way out of its patent infringement dilemma, an injunction will kill the Blackberry, and may well stop Research In Motion dead in its tracks.